According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on April 16, the real gross domestic product (GDP) after excluding price changes in January-March grew 5.4% year-on-year. This growth rate is the same as that in October-December 2024. Production remains in good shape, but the real estate-related sector continues to be sluggish. In the future, the US tariffs on China will become a heavy burden.
The year-on-year growth rate in January-March is higher than the average market forecast (5.0%) surveyed by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun and Nikkei QUICK News. The month-on-month growth rate adjusted for seasonal factors is 1.2%, which is smaller than that in October-December 2024 (1.6%).
If the month-on-month growth rate is converted to an annual rate as in developed countries, the growth rate is about 4.9%. The nominal GDP, which is close to the actual living experience of the people, grew 4.6% year-on-year. The growth rate in October-December 2024 (1.6%) was 4.6%.
Other statistics were also released on the 16th. Industrial production grew by 6.5% from January to March. March alone grew by 7.7%. The production of new energy vehicles such as pure electric vehicles (EVs) grew by 45.4%, 3D printer equipment grew by 44.9%, and industrial robots grew by 26.0%.
Fixed asset investment, which reflects factory construction, grew by 4.2% from January to March. Among them, private investment grew by 0.4%. The real estate market continued to be in a sluggish state, with real estate development investment falling by 9.9% from January to March. The area of new home sales also fell by 3.0%.
The total retail sales of consumer goods in March, which is calculated by adding up the sales of department stores, supermarkets, and online retail sales, grew by 5.9%. Catering revenue, which accounts for 10% of the total, grew by 5.6%. The total retail sales of consumer goods from January to March grew by 4.6% year-on-year.
At present, external demand has become a driving factor for the economy. Exports (in US dollars) from January to March grew by 5.8% year-on-year. The trade surplus obtained by subtracting imports from exports grew by more than 40% year-on-year.
The GDP growth rate from January to March exceeded the economic growth rate target of “around 5%” set by the Chinese government for 2025. The Trump administration of the United States has imposed a cumulative tariff of 145% on China, which will inevitably affect China’s exports to the United States. If external demand stagnates, the risk of economic slowdown will increase, and the uncertainty of the outlook is rising.
