Economically developed provinces are not only the ballast stone for stabilizing the basic economic situation of the whole country, but also the pioneers of optimizing the economic development structure and moving the momentum to a new direction.

Recently, the economic data of Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, Sichuan and Henan provinces in the first quarter have been released one after another, and the responsibility of economically developed provinces to take the lead with practical actions has become more obvious. “Beijing West Road Lookout” sorted out the “report cards” of these six provinces in the first quarter:

In the first quarter, Guangdong achieved a regional GDP of 3352.551 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.1% at constant prices; Jiangsu achieved a regional GDP of 3308.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9% at constant prices; Shandong’s GDP was 2346.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.0% at constant prices; Zhejiang’s regional GDP reached 2230 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.0% at constant prices; Sichuan’s regional GDP was 1524.692 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5% at constant prices; Henan achieved a regional GDP of 1494.558 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.9%

In terms of economic output, the six provinces have a total of 14.26 trillion yuan, accounting for about 44.7% of the country. Guangdong and Jiangsu continue to lead.

A closer look at the outstanding “answer sheet” handed in by the economically developed provinces shows the following characteristics:

“Stable” is the most important word

In the “economic report” of the economically developed provinces in the first quarter, “stable” has become the most frequently appearing word. This can be seen from the changes in the growth rate:

For example, in the first quarter, Jiangsu’s economic growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage points compared with last year, continuing the further recovery trend in the fourth quarter of last year. The Xinhua Daily reported: “This steady answer sheet of “cross-year connection” demonstrates the responsibility of “economically developed provinces taking the lead”, and also shows the determination and wisdom of Jiangsu’s economic development to be “stable” and “progressive.”

In the first quarter, Guangdong’s main indicators rebounded month by month, and the economic growth rate increased by 0.6 percentage points over the whole year of the previous year. The Southern Daily pointed out the significance of this data: This means that Guangdong has successfully stabilized the basic economic situation, and the economic recovery trend is obvious.

Dazhong Daily reported that in the first quarter, Shandong showed a steady growth trend in terms of agricultural production, industrial production growth, effective investment scale expansion, and continued release of consumption potential. In the first quarter of last year, Shandong’s GDP growth rate was 6.0%. “It can be said that in the first quarter of this year, a good growth rate was maintained on a high base, and the momentum was very strong.”

……

Industry is the “ballast stone” for stabilizing the overall market. In the first quarter “report card” of economically developed provinces, industrial economic data performed outstandingly.

In the first quarter, Jiangsu’s industrial added value above designated size increased by 8.2% year-on-year, 0.6 and 0.5 percentage points faster than the fourth quarter and the whole year of the previous year, respectively, and the overall trend of steady and rapid growth continued. Among them, the added value of manufacturing increased by 8.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate accelerated by 1.4 percentage points over the whole year of the previous year, providing “hard support” for the overall growth of Jiangsu’s GDP, once again demonstrating the strength and confidence of Jiangsu manufacturing. In addition, among the 40 major industrial sectors listed in Jiangsu, 33 industries had year-on-year growth in added value, and the industry growth area was 82.5%.

In the first quarter, Guangdong’s main indicators rose month by month: the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3.9% year-on-year, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from January to February, of which March increased by 5.5%; the added value of computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing increased by 6.6%, and the added value of automobile manufacturing increased by 12.5%.

In the first quarter, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size in Shandong increased by 8.2% year-on-year, of which the added value of equipment manufacturing increased by 13.9%. Among the 41 major industrial categories, 36 industries achieved growth in added value, with a growth rate of 87.8%, and 14 industries achieved double-digit growth.

According to the Zhejiang Daily, in the first quarter, Zhejiang’s industrial added value reached 751.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.0%, contributing 2.4 percentage points to GDP growth, and continued to play a “ballast stone” role. Among them, the growth rate of industrial added value above designated size increased from 8.0% in January to February to 8.9% in the first quarter. Among the 38 major industries, 30 industries achieved growth in added value, with a growth rate of 78.9%.

“In the first quarter, the province’s industrial added value above designated size increased by 7.2% year-on-year, returning to more than 7%, and the growth rate hit a 12-quarter high, showing the strong development resilience of Sichuan’s industrial economy.” The Sichuan Daily reported that in the first quarter, Sichuan’s industry got off to a good start, and the “ballast stone” of economic growth became more stable, achieving the strongest start in nearly three years. Among the 41 major industries above designated size in Sichuan, 33 industries achieved growth in added value, with an industry growth rate of 80.5%, which has remained above 80% for many consecutive months.

In the first quarter, Henan’s industrial economy performed strongly. According to the Henan Daily, in the first quarter, Henan’s industrial added value above designated size increased by 8.8% year-on-year, ranking second among the top ten industrial provinces. Manufacturing has become the core engine driving growth, with a growth rate of 9.7% in the first quarter. Among the 40 major industrial categories, 32 industries achieved positive growth in added value, with a growth rate of 80.0%. The report mentioned that what is more noteworthy is that in the first quarter, Henan’s industrial investment ranked first among the top ten industrial provinces with a growth rate of 21.9%.

High “new” content

The economically developed province has taken on the responsibility of taking the lead, vigorously promoted the deep integration of scientific and technological innovation and industrial innovation, and accelerated the cultivation of new quality productivity. The “report card” contains a high amount of “new”.

Jiangsu has always focused on cultivating internal strength and made innovation in depth: in the first quarter, the output value of Jiangsu’s high-tech industries accounted for 51.4% of the total industrial output value above the designated size, an increase of 0.7 percentage points over the whole of last year; the added value of high-tech manufacturing and specialized “little giants” enterprises above the designated size increased by 12.9% and 10.2% year-on-year respectively.

The added value of 1,955 specialized “little giants” enterprises in Jiangsu included in the statistics of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 10.2% year-on-year, and 36.8% of the enterprises achieved rapid double-digit growth, becoming the “vanguard” to drive the renewal of the industry. According to the Xinhua Daily, under the leadership of advanced manufacturing, Jiangsu’s industrial structure has been continuously adjusted and optimized, and Jiangsu manufacturing has shown a “three-change” trend: more independent, smarter, and greener.

In the first quarter, the added value of Guangdong’s advanced manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing industries increased by 5.9% and 5.3% respectively, and the output of new energy vehicles, lithium-ion batteries for energy storage, industrial robots, and service robots increased by 29.9%, 83.5%, 31.3%, and 10.8% respectively. “Nanfang Daily” gave such an example: “Xiaopeng Motors successfully broke through the siege, and delivered a total of 94,008 new cars in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 331%.”

“Dazhong Daily” reported that in the first quarter, the added value of Shandong’s high-tech manufacturing industries above designated size increased by 13.3%; the output of industrial robots and optoelectronic devices increased by 76.2% and 25.4% respectively. “Behind this is Shandong’s focus on large-scale equipment renewal, digital transformation, and green technology transformation, accelerating the advancement of traditional industries to the middle and high-end, cultivating and strengthening emerging momentum, and accelerating the formation of new quality productivity.”

Emerging industries are important engines for the development of new quality productivity. In the first quarter, the added value of Zhejiang’s high-tech manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, and strategic emerging industries increased by 13.2%, 13.1%, and 10.3% respectively. The output of notebook computers, industrial robots, new energy vehicles, integrated circuits and other products increased by 70.2%, 54.1%, 47.6% and 26.2% respectively.

The transformation and upgrading of traditional industries has injected new impetus into the development of new quality productivity. According to the Zhejiang Daily, in the first quarter, the investment in technological transformation of Zhejiang’s manufacturing industry increased by 15.9%, 13.9 percentage points faster than the total investment. The accelerated transformation and upgrading of traditional industries has led to further acceleration of production. The investment in technological transformation of the 17 major traditional manufacturing industries increased by 8.5%, and the added value increased by 8.4%, which was 0.4 percentage points faster than the whole of last year.

Since the beginning of this year, Sichuan’s new quality productivity has accelerated its development, leading the industrial economy to improve quality and efficiency, “especially in some industries and products, reflecting the development results of high, new and green.” The Sichuan Daily reported that in terms of the accelerated progress of industries towards high-end development, in the first quarter, the added value of Sichuan’s high-tech manufacturing industry above designated size increased by 14.5% year-on-year. Among them, the added value of the electronic and communication equipment manufacturing industry increased by 21.9% year-on-year, and the aerospace and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 15.6% year-on-year. In terms of the adjustment of the industrial economic structure to “new”, in the first quarter, the output of Sichuan’s industrial robots, sensors, and semiconductor discrete devices increased by 20.9%, 23.3%, and 25.4% year-on-year respectively.

Driven by the dual-wheel transformation and upgrading of traditional industries and the accelerated layout of emerging industries, Henan’s new quality productivity is showing a booming trend. In the first quarter, the added value of Henan’s strategic emerging industries and high-tech manufacturing industries increased by 10.6% and 14.1% year-on-year respectively, with growth rates exceeding double digits, 1.8 and 5.3 percentage points higher than all above-scale industries, respectively, becoming a new engine to drive industrial economic growth.

At the State Council Information Office press conference held on the 7th, the heads of the People’s Bank of China, the State Financial Supervision and Administration Bureau, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission introduced the relevant situation of “a package of financial policies to support the stabilization of the market and expectations” and answered questions from reporters. At the press conference, Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People’s Bank of China, announced that the reserve requirement ratio would be reduced by 0.5 percentage points, providing the market with about 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity, and reducing the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage point.

Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Orient Securities, said that this means that the extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustment in 2025 has been launched. This time, the reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cut have two main functions. First, it will reduce the loan interest rates of enterprises and residents, enhance the lending capacity of banks, and expand investment and consumption; second, the monetary policy of reducing the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates is a big move, which has released a strong signal of stabilizing growth, helping to boost market confidence, stabilize the macroeconomic trend, and stabilize the overall employment situation.

Wang Qing judged that after this interest rate cut, the interest rate of residents’ mortgage loans will be further reduced, which is a key move to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize this year. The reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cut will undoubtedly effectively guide the expectations of the capital market and are the fastest positive factors in the current market. As for the foreign exchange market, the reduction of reserve requirement ratio and interest rate will play an important supporting role in stabilizing the RMB exchange rate. He predicts that there will be new incremental policies including fiscal reinforcement and consumption promotion, and there is still room for interest rate and reserve requirement ratio reduction.

On April 22, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2025 by 0.5 percentage points from its last forecast in January to 2.8%. Affected by the high tariff policy of the Trump administration in the United States, all regions have been downgraded and are in a general downturn.

Tariffs have also hit the United States itself hard. The IMF sounded the alarm, saying that there is a 30% probability of falling below 2%. Falling below 2% is the rough benchmark for “deterioration of the world economy.”

Due to the erratic tariff policy of the US government, the IMF took the rare step of setting the forecast time for the basic trend to April 4 and announcing the expected value of the intermediate stage forecast.

As of late March, the IMF predicted that the growth rate in 2025 would decline slightly by 0.1 percentage points. Expectations suddenly deteriorated due to the large-scale reciprocal tariffs announced by US President Trump on April 2.

In 2025, the growth of global trade volume will shrink to about 1.7%, less than half of the 3.8% in 2024. Supply shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic, which stopped the flow of goods around the world, will drag down overall growth.

IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas pointed out that not only the intensification of trade frictions, but also the “risk of a sharp deterioration in the financial situation” is a hidden worry in the future.

The United States, the epicenter, has made the largest downward adjustment. The IMF’s forecast for the US growth rate in 2025 has dropped by 0.9 percentage points to 1.8%, a sharp slowdown from 2.8% in 2024. There is a 37% chance of a recession this year. Trump believes that the economic slowdown is a “short transition period”, but the IMF has also lowered the US growth rate in 2026 by 0.4 percentage points to 1.7%.

The IMF predicts that China’s growth rate will drop by 0.6 percentage points to 4.0% in 2025. Compared with the United States, which is expected to slow down from the high growth in 2024, China’s fiscal stimulus policy will support the economy. However, the IMF’s estimates for China and the United States do not include the confrontation of countermeasures that intensified after the 4th, and the decline may be further expanded.

The forecast for Japan is to grow by 0.6%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points. The 25% industry tariff on automobiles will suppress exports. The largest decline was in Mexico, which was listed as a high tariff target from the beginning, with a decrease of 1.7 percentage points and a negative growth of 0.3%.

Among the 16 major economies, only Russia and Spain have slightly increased. The Trump administration excluded Russia from the target of reciprocal tariffs. Trump explained, “Because there is basically no business (with the United States).”

The IMF believes that the forecast is more likely to deteriorate in both the short and long term.

source: 《International Business News》